Why China’s Luxury Boom Is Over

The Self-Inflicted Downfall of Luxury Brands

Obscene Prices, Declining Quality: Luxury Is in a Death Spiral

 

Opinion

Guest Essay

Obscene Prices, Declining Quality: Luxury Is in a Death Spiral

Dec. 19, 2024

By Katharine K. Zarrella

Ms. Zarrella is a longtime fashion editor and lecturer.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/19/opinion/vuitton-chanel-burberry-lvmh-hermes.html

 

The holiday shopping season is hitting its apex. And do you know what I, a longtime fashion editor, will not be buying my loved ones this year? Big-name luxury fashion. I’d sooner set my eyebrows on fire.

 

Why am I betraying the industry to which I’ve dedicated the better part of the past 20 years of my life, you might wonder? Let me tell you a story.

 

When, for the fall 2023 season, Marc Jacobs reissued the runway-show version of his Kiki boots — a sought-after, supple-leather style that I’d been lusting after since their 2016 debut — I found a way to squeeze them into my budget. I’d had a tumultuous few months, and I figured I’d treat myself to something I’d treasure forever. Something that would last.

 

They did not. The right heel cap fell off after a handful of wears, revealing a flimsy plastic cavern. I got it replaced, only to have a four-inch platform base snap off like a rotting tree limb days later. Timber! Two passers-by heaved me up, and I limped home, barefoot. In February, I demanded a refund, which I promptly put toward much-needed physical therapy.

 

My experience sums up everything that’s gone wrong with what once served as semiotic shorthand for the good life. In recent years, luxury of all kinds has become obscenely, disgracefully, inconceivably costly. And the price hikes we’ve seen are steeper than what inflation would dictate. What’s worse? As costs climb, quality hasn’t. In fact, it’s largely declined.

 

“Luxury is in chaos,” said Gill Linton, a fashion and marketing expert and a co-founder of luxury vintage platform Byronesque.

 

I’d go a step further. Luxury is in a death spiral. After a decade of nearly unfettered growth, the sector is bombing across the globe. Analysts point to less-affluent buyers reining in their spending and slowing demand in China. I believe there’s another culprit: a growing realization that many luxury houses have broken the principles that made them so successful. These hoity-toity brands, which cheapened their essence and eviscerated their desirability with down-market celebrity partnerships, licensing deals and influencer advertising, have no one to blame but themselves.

 

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This started at the source of so many modern woes: social media. For those not glued to TikTok or “The Kardashians,” social media, helped along by reality TV, has instigated a frenetic game of one-upmanship in which top social-media content makers aim to project wealth while outdoing themselves and their competition. This means flaunting luxury goods in posts that are then spread widely by algorithms. Kyle Richards, a cast member of “The Real Housewives of Beverly Hills,” has become infamous for hitting the gym with a difficult-to-get Hermès Birkin bag — which costs anywhere from five figures to hundreds of thousands — dangling from her arm.

 

At the same time, the rich were getting richer — and more people were joining them. According to Swiss bank UBS, there were 7.64 million millionaires in the United States in 2000. By 2023, we saw that number nearly triple.

 

For those who aren’t comfortably in the millionaire class, technology offers a solution. The exploding popularity of financing apps such as Klarna and Afterpay — online lending services that allow users to break payments up into installments — has ushered in a whole new era of buy now, pay later. It’s stigma-free layaway for nearly any item. Nobody has to know, and you get the product upfront.

 

Suddenly, brands accustomed to catering to a select few found themselves pursued by a surfeit of less discerning customers — some literally children — seeking a status boost for their social media profiles. Meanwhile, the platforms continue to both stoke class anxieties and offer a seemingly unlimited amount of data on what to want next. Confronted by hordes, companies tried preserving their images the one way they knew how: jacking up prices. In doing so, they followed the longstanding Veblen goods principle. Derived from the economist Thorstein Veblen’s “The Theory of the Leisure Class,” written in 1899, it states that demand for luxury goods will actually increase as their prices increase, because such hikes thin the herds and make scarce goods that much more desirable.

 

Which prices have skyrocketed? The better question is which haven’t.

 

From October 2019 to April 2024, the cost of Prada’s popular Galleria Saffiano bag increased 111 percent. In the same period, the cost of Louis Vuitton’s canvas Speedy bag doubled, and Gucci’s Marmont small matelassé shoulder bag went up by 75 percent. Chanel is particularly notorious: Its iconic medium 2.55 leather flap bag, which cost $5,800 in 2019, will now set you back $10,800 — and is increasingly the subject of quality complaints.

 

What about that perfect exotic backdrop to show off your new goods? A thousand bucks for a night in a normal hotel room, once unheard-of, is surprisingly common. Rooms at the sought-after Amangiri resort in Utah started at around $1,800 a night in 2018. Now they start at $3,509. Jaclyn Sienna India, the founder of a travel and lifestyle company that caters to individuals and families with a minimum net worth of $100 million, notes that the prix fixe menu at the exclusive Ibiza restaurant Sublimotion was about $1,675 a head in 2022. Today, she said, it’s $2,380.

 

Under the Veblen goods principle, shoppers should view luxury brands’ higher prices as a sign that the goods are precious and hard to obtain. The problem is that neither of those is the case.

 

Luxury has become nearly ubiquitous. Open Instagram, and everyone has a Louis Vuitton Speedy or a Chanel Boy Bag or some other instantly recognizable four-figure-plus purse from a mainstream luxury label. Some of that comes from the rise of resale (people disposing of their used luxury wares, usually at deep discounts) or dupes (similar-looking copies that trade for far less). And a growing number are superfakes — highly convincing counterfeits that seemingly offer similar quality for a fraction of the cost.

 

On top of all of this, some luxury purveyors also began expanding their product categories and selling overstock via off-price outlets. Boutiques that were once decadent salons offering fittings to clients when they sipped champagne are now tourist destinations for the rich and the upper middle class, trading in wallets and key chains, which, despite their comical price tags, are among the cheapest options. We are mere minutes away from a Chanel- and Gucci-packed outlet store popping up in a midtier strip mall near you.

 

For a while, it worked. After the pandemic, newly minted millionaires were eager to spend and show off. The Chanels and Vuittons jacked up prices “so the ‘wrong’ people stop buying,” said Erez Yoeli, a research scientist at M.I.T.’s Sloan School of Management. But part “of the pressure in the marketplace comes from the fact that you do have to be legitimately better,” he said. “And if you’re not, you’re going to suffer the consequences.”

 

They weren’t better. Ms. India found that service at many top-tier hotels nose-dived during the pandemic, partly from staffing shortages, and has yet to recover. And how about those $10,000 handbags? Taleen Akopyan, who with her husband has worked as a cobbler and a leather restoration expert for the past four decades, said her business has shifted from bags that are 50 years old and still in good shape to brand-new Chanels, Louis Vuittons and Guccis that need help after a few wears. “There’s definitely a quality deterioration across the board,” she said.

 

It had to end. By many measures, the luxury market is in free-fall.

 

LVMH and Kering, which owns brands including Gucci, Balenciaga and Yves Saint Laurent, reported losses this year. Same goes for Burberry; Richemont, which owns Alaïa, Cartier and Chloé; and Capri Holdings, owner of Michael Kors, Versace and Jimmy Choo. A fall study from the management consulting company Bain predicted that 2024 would be the first year of luxury slowdown since the 2008 financial crisis (excluding the pandemic). Certainly the luxury sector tends to be one of the first hit by a slowing economy. But many of the reasons for today’s problems the companies brought on themselves.

 

Some brands are responding by dropping prices, which risks turning a luxury label into a line that’s carried by outlet malls and desired by virtually no one. Investors shouldn’t have lauded Burberry’s new C.E.O., Joshua Schulman, when in November he announced that among other adjustments, the brand would be reducing the prices of its handbags.

 

Perhaps the most egregious sign of the problem is the fact that luxury goods are winding up on the shelves of discount outlet stores. Dumping excess product in less-than-glamorous locations can be so destructive to a brand’s perception that some companies used to set excess product on fire to avoid such a fate. And yet, according to Bain, at the end of 2023, that’s exactly where about 13 percent of all luxury goods were purchased, compared with 5 percent a decade earlier.

 

Some brands are trying to hold the line. In a July interview, LVMH’s chief financial officer, Jean-Jacques Guiony, implied that price increases won’t “end just because the aspirational customers are a little under pressure.” Fun fact: LVMH’s fashion and leather-goods sales did a 5 percent belly flop in 2024’s third quarter. So perhaps pressure isn’t so much the problem as subpar, overpriced goods, like the $2,816 Christian Dior bags that were discovered to have been made in an Italian sweatshop for around $57.

 

What happened to these once-prestigious bastions of craftsmanship and fabulousness? The eponymous founder of Louis Vuitton was born into a family of artisans in 1821 and dedicated his life to studying and perfecting trunk making. Chanel was founded by Coco Chanel in the early 20th century and brilliantly designed sporty wares for women that freed them from corsets. Christian Dior invented the New Look in 1947, an immaculately designed, hyperfeminine silhouette that was a return to belle epoque glamour after the austerity of World War II. These brands and their peers long upheld the traditions and standards of their founders — until they didn’t. When short-term bottom lines matter more than history and heritage, corners get cut, the soul gets snuffed out, and the product becomes trash in a fancy box.

 

An exception is Hermès. The company has raised the cost of its Birkin 30 bag in Togo leather just 15 percent from 2019 to 2024, taking it from $10,900 to $12,500. That said, many claim you may have to spend a great amount on other Hermès items to “earn” the privilege of buying one.

 

Like my sad Kiki boots, much of old-school luxury — the kind that was so glamorous, lush and exquisite that everyone understood it, many craved it and few could have it — is beyond repair. Once-revered establishments that prided themselves on craftsmanship, service and cultivating a discerning and loyal customer base have become mass-marketing machines that are about as elegant and exclusive as the Times Square M&M’s store.

 

Today, instant gratification, profit and appearances are more desirable than substance, depth or intrinsic worth. And while the decline of “luxury” might not seem like the end of the world (especially with so many apocalypse-adjacent events unfolding), its fall represents a deeper decay that’s gnawing at so much of our existence — from education, media and literature to interpersonal relationships and quality of life.

 

But back to shopping. Now is the perfect time to seek skilled, independent craftspeople and designers who remain uncompromised by the luxury conglomerates’ production quotas and politics.

 

If something is obviously awful and obscenely expensive, don’t buy it. Don’t tout it on Instagram. Tell the manager you know it was mid. I certainly won’t be dipping my toes into any Marc Jacobs platforms again. One bruised tailbone was terrible enough. I’ll happily tell you all about it.

 

Katharine K. Zarrella is a longtime fashion editor, critic and lecturer.

The Laco B-Uhr – A Flieger Watch Review

There are some watch designs that not only stand the test of time, but in the case of war, also transcend their original context to become a classic. Such a watch, the B-Uhr, the offspring of Germany and Switzerland’s leading watchmakers, has a noted history of design and production, but was employed for an infamous cause. The B-Uhren watches guided German bombers in their terrible campaigns of World War II with dropped bombs whistling through air to end in devastating consequence. The B-Uhr remains a formidable watch.

https://monochrome-watches.com/the-history-of-the-pilot-watch-part-five-b-uhr/

In 1935, Adolf Hitler announced his plans to reconstitute Germany’s Air Force and officially created the Luftwaffe. Germany had been building its aviation forces, decidedly military in purpose and in violation of WWI’s Versailles Treaty, but this buildup had proceeded ostensibly for civilian purposes. With his power consolidated, Hitler shrugged off all pretense and announced Germany’s resumption of military procurement. Prior to 1935, the Heinkel He 111 bomber supposedly existed as a transport plane just as the National Socialist Party supposedly sought to establish peace and prosperity. Though few (including watchmakers) knew it at the time, Germany was preparing for war.

Schematic-WFThe RLM (Reichs-Luftfahrtministerium), responsible for aircraft development, also sought a commensurate time piece for its bomber navigators. The 1935 conceptual designs first specified an hour angle indication like the Lindbergh watch (see here), but this specification was dropped, and standard criteria emerged, making the B-Uhr instantly recognizable.

These watches were big. 55mm big. The size accommodated large hand-wound movements typically used in pocket watches, but the B-Uhr was always to be a watch for the wrist. Each one used a Breguet balance spring. Inside, the movement was surrounded by an iron core, making the B-Uhr anti-magnetic – a must for aviation. To correct for time discrepancies, the movements were capable of stopping the central seconds hand by pulling the crown, or hacking, and the oversized diamond or onion crown could be operated with gloves on the hand. A very long, double-riveted leather strap, long enough to go over the leather flight jacket, held the B-Uhr in place.

The large size made them unambiguously legible and their black dials with white Arabic numerals further aided the task of precise reading. The flame-blued sword hands were covered in luminous material as was the distinguishing upwards-orientation triangle or arrow at the twelve o’clock position, accompanied by two dots on the Type A models. The initial Type A model had only an outer chapter ring, but the later type B (starting in 1941) had an outer ring for minutes/seconds and an inner ring for hours. Each case had FL23883 engraved on the left side. FL designated flieger, and 23 identified the watch as a navigation watch. The snap-off case back had the following identifying information on its inside: type (Bauart), production number (Gerät-Nr.), movement (Werk-Bez.), order number (Anforderz), and manufacturer (Hersteller). The RLM and its partner watch manufacturers produced a novel design, which would attain cult status.

B-Uhren is an abbreviation for Beobachtungs-uhren, literally Observation watches. B-Uhr is singular, and B-Uhren is plural. The B-Uhren were property of the Luftwaffe, not the navigators. The navigator was issued his watch before flight, and then returned the watch after completing the mission. Navigators received a signal beep from the airbase, which in turn set its chronometer to the standard time of the German Naval Observatory (Deutsche Seewarte), and if the navigator’s time was off, the hacking mechanism allowed for adjustment. An accurate watch was necessary for navigation, so all the B-Uhren watches were regulated and tested to the highest chronometer standards of the Deutsche Seewarte in Hamburg. Bomber navigators peered over the navigation table, their B-Uhren at the ready, and plotted course, copied astronomical fixes and noted events on the map. The B-Uhr was a consummate navigational aid.

Five manufacturers – four German and one Swiss – supplied the B-Uhren. In Germany, A. Lange & Söhne, Wempe, Lacher & Company/Durowe (Laco), and Walter Storz (Stowa) produced the watch. Wempe and Stowa used Swiss movements; Wempe settled on the Thommen cal. 31, and Stowa used the Unitas cal. 2812. Lange used its big cal. 48 and then its cal. 48.1, and Laco used its (Durowe) cal. 5 – the only two companies to use in-house German movements. When Wempe purchased the Chronometerwerk in Hamburg in 1938, it gained a significant increase in production capacity, and to assist the limited production faced by Lange and Laco, Wempe assembled watches for them. To meet demand, Lange also sent ébauches and cases to a variety of other manufacturers for assembly and regulation. In smaller numbers, the Swiss International Watch Company IWC who supplied watches to both Axis and Allied forces, manufactured the B-Uhr (cal. 52T S.C.) for the Luftwaffe. These five companies were the only ones to make the B-Uhr.

Today, the available Lange or Wempe B-Uhren are vintage watches from the war, and if you can find one, they come with hefty price tags. IWC’s Big Pilot watch is an evolution from the B-Uhr, having its predecessor’s DNA, but sporting an adapted design. This is a watch made for aviation, and as such, retains an anti-magnetic feature – the only current watch to do so. Unlike its no-frills B-Uhr predecessor, the Big Pilot elevates the navigational concept to a higher echelon of quality and function, providing a luxury timepiece (see here).

Stowa, now owned by watchmaker Jörg Schauer, offers a nice homage to the B-Uhr in a dressier version (see here). The case is polished, the movement decorated, visible through a transparent case back, and the 40mm size is the smallest of this group. They also offer a date window option. Stowa makes a fine watch, but be prepared to wait for its arrival – demand far exceeds production.

Laco offers a wide range of movement choices, providing a greater range of affordability, but its watches featuring ETA and hand winding movements are the watches of note. In these, Laco produces what might be termed a reproduction, having carefully recreated the design of the original watch down to the smallest detail, from the dial design to the FL23883 engraved on the case’s side to the inner case back information ingeniously moved to the outside. These Laco watches measure 42mm and 45mm (see here). Both Stowa and Laco offer flame blued hands, sapphire crystal, riveted leather straps, superb luminosity and Type A and B models. Of the original manufacturers, IWC, Stowa and Laco each offer a contemporary B-Uhr choice.

A Gentleman’s London, Episode Twenty-three: Bamford Watch Department

Bamford Watch Department

Originally called Bamford & Sons, the Bamford Watch Department is the watch customisation company run by George Bamford. An early pioneer of watch customisation, it is now the official in-housem personalisation company for TAG Heuer, Zenith, Bvlgari, Girard-Perregaux and Franck Muller as well as collaborations with Casio G-Shock and other brands. Alongside BWD sits Bamford London with its line of watches including the Mayfair, GMT and B347.

How a Savile Row Suit is Really Made: The Rest Is History goes to Anderson & Sheppard / Savile Row bespoke suit sales surged in 2024

Savile Row bespoke suit sales surged in 2024

 

Savile Row tailors sold more bespoke suits this year than any time since the Covid-19 pandemic, as people are returning to the office or attending more formal parties, say retailers on the famous London street.

 

By David Harris

22 October 2024

https://www.drapersonline.com/news/savile-row-bespoke-suit-sales-surged-in-2024

 

Savile Row suffered during Covid and the years that followed, as people worked from home, but Richard Anderson - an independent tailor at 13 Savile Row - said orders for bespoke suits were up by 12% on last year.

 

His theory is that as more people are heading back into the office, they are investing in tailored work attire. As such, his turnover from bespoke suits, which can retail at over £7,000, reached more than £1.5m last year, and 2024 was looking even better.

 

When he spoke to Drapers in September, he had sold 216 bespoke suits, compared to 202 in the same period in 2023. Women’s suits are up from 19 to 28, and made-to-measure from 55 to 63.

 

"What we are seeing is a significant increase in people wanting to get more suits across all three levels – ready-to-wear, made-to-measure and bespoke," said Anderson.

 

"Ready-to-wear dinner suit sales are unbelievable. I think that’s down to not many evening events for a couple of years [due to the national lockdowns] and now people are packing them in. The point is that people were not dressing up as much, but now they are."

 

He said people are continuing to wear business suits in different ways, with cotton and linen suits a popular choice for office workers. While informality is also playing a role, with Savile Row suits increasingly worn with T-shirts or without ties, he said.

 

"[However,] we are still selling traditional fabrics. We specialise in 18oz cloths and we have a certain type of clientele that wants them, especially Americans from the east coast - places like Chicago, where it can get very cold - and the beauty of these heavy suits is that they last for ever," he said.

 

"I think formal is smarter, nicer. But you have to be alive to what is going on."

 

At Huntsman & Sons - at 11 Savile Row - bespoke suits make up 84% of total turnover. Sales were up 35% in revenue terms, compared to 2019. While ready-to-wear increased by 25%.

 

“We have already matched 2023’s figures for bespoke, with three months still to go,” managing director Taj Phull told Drapers.

 

He agrees times are changing but says most of his customers still come to him for formal suits.

 

“Around 60% of our business is bespoke two-piece suits [retailing at £6,700] in navy blue, so that always seems to remain solid. There are some changes – people seem to be wearing a lot of Seersucker (a thin puckered stripe or chequered design) at the moment – but when customers come to Savile Row, they are often looking for a formal suit.”

 

It is not just suits that are in demand, said Phull, with ties also proving popular. By September, Huntsman had seen tie sales of £50,000, compared to £56,000 for the full year in 2019.

 

“[The last] three months are the biggest tie purchasing period – for gifting – so I would expect us to easily pass the £75,000 spent on ties last year," he said.

 

At Anderson & Sheppard - which is just off Savile Row, at 32 Old Burlington Street - owner Anda Rowland said she has noticed a rise in both younger customers and older people who want more traditional products.

 

“You can’t categorise our customers easily. They come from all sorts of backgrounds," she said.

 

"Some buy suits every five years or so, some might order just one as something they have promised themselves for years, some might order 15 a year. All of them are different."

 

The average retail price for a two-piece bespoke suit at Anderson & Sheppard is £6,500, although some can cost more than that.

 

“The price does go up if anybody wants cashmere or vicuna or something like that, but the idea that Savile Row suits go much above – you hear people talking about £10,000 and more - is a bit exaggerated," said Rowland.

 

"Something like 80% of the bespoke suits we sell are around £6,500 – we try not to increase it too much unless we really have to.”

 

However, with the increased demand, one challenge for bespoke garment sellers is having enough skilled craftspeople, said Huntsman's Phull.

 

“Apprentices take years to train so we have to make sure that we have enough to meet future growth. At the moment we have eight on the go, including cutters, coat makers and trouser makers."

Eleri Lynn succeeds Lucy Worsley as chief curator at Historic Royal Palaces

NEWS!

I'm both sad & excited to say that at the end of 2024, I'll be leaving my job as Chief Curator at Historic Royal Palaces! I've had the best colleagues in history for 21 years, but I want to spend more time with my friends at our #LadyKillers podcast and our growing #LadyKillers community❤️

In case you're new round here: the independent charity Historic Royal Palaces are the wonderful people who love and look after places like Hampton Court and the Tower of London, and welcome in visitors.  I'm going to be continuing to support the great work they do!

You might find this hard to believe, as obviously I don't look a day older, but this is actually a picture of me as a very young curator more than 20 years ago.

You can join and support Historic Royal Palaces here:

https://www.hrp.org.uk/membership/?utm_medium=paid_search...

 

Eleri Lynn succeeds Lucy Worsley as chief curator at Historic Royal Palaces

 

Fashion and textiles historian appointed to oversee curatorial team and presentation of charity's palaces and collections

 

24 February 2025

Curatorial

Geraldine Kendall Adams

https://www.museumsassociation.org/museums-journal/news/2025/02/eleri-lynn-succeeds-lucy-worsley-as-chief-curator-at-historic-royal-palaces/#:~:text=Historic%20Royal%20Palaces%20(HRP)%20has,of%202024%20after%2021%20years.

 

Eleri Lynn is a fashion and textiles historian Historic Royal Palaces

Historic Royal Palaces (HRP) has announced the appointment of Eleri Lynn as its new chief curator.

 

A fashion history and textiles expert, and award-winning author, Lynn succeeds the historian and TV presenter Lucy Worsley, who stepped down as chief curator at the end of 2024 after 21 years.

 

HRP is an independent charity responsible for six of the UK’s royal palaces: the Tower of London, Hampton Court Palace, Banqueting House, Kensington Palace, Kew Palace and Hillsborough Castle.

 

Lynn will lead the institution’s curatorial team, overseeing research and presentation of its palaces and collections.

 

In a statement, the charity said: “Lynn has dedicated her career to exploring fashion history, image-making, and the power of dress as a form of communication.

 

“Her special interests include inclusive storytelling and research, the intersection between fashion and politics and the performance of power through dress in the Tudor court.

 

 “Lynn shares HRP’s commitment to ensuring the rich and diverse histories of the charity’s six sites and 60,000-strong collection are explored, sharing the stories of the palaces, and ensuring overlooked histories are brought to light.

 

“As chief curator, she will guide HRP’s curatorial team in researching and presenting these extraordinary historic sites and collections, ensuring their stories continue to inspire audiences worldwide. She will also spearhead innovative exhibitions and curatorial projects that celebrate the rich and complex histories of these palaces.”

 

Originally from South Wales, Lynn is a fluent Welsh speaker and a champion of accessibility in the heritage sector.

 

The appointment marks her return to HRP, where she served as curator of collections from 2013-2021.

 

During her previous tenure, Lynn curated well-known exhibitions including Diana: Her Fashion Story and The Lost Dress of Elizabeth I. She also oversaw the Royal Ceremonial Dress Collection, one of the world’s most significant holdings of historic fashion, which comprises 10,000 items of historic dress and related materials.

 

More recently, Lynn worked at Amgueddfa Cymru – Museum Wales, where she led on the institution’s exhibitions and international touring strategy, overseeing programming across seven national sites.

 

She also spent a decade at the Victoria & Albert Museum, contributing to blockbuster exhibitions such as Savage Beauty: Alexander McQueen and The Golden Age of Couture.

 

Lynn is currently a fellow of the Society of Antiquaries and a trustee of the Royal School of Needlework.

 

“Eleri is an exceptional curator with a passion for bringing history to life,” said Adrian Phillips, HRP’s director of palaces and collections. “Her expertise, creative vision, and commitment to inclusive storytelling make her the perfect leader to guide our curatorial team into the future.”

 

Lynn said: “It’s an honour to take on this role at Historic Royal Palaces. These palaces and their remarkable collections hold some of the most fascinating stories in British history, and I look forward to working with the team to share them with new audiences in fresh and exciting ways.”